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After a strong start to the year, global equity markets experienced some profit-taking in April. The MSCI World index was down 3.7% for the month, reducing year-to-date gains to +4.5%. In the U.S., the S&P 500 index turned negative by 4% as well as Nasdaq technology index -4.50%. Negative performance also for European stock exchanges with Euro Stoxx closing the month at -2.40%. Same trend for the Swiss stock exchange with SMI at -2.90%. Exceptions were the Chinese market, where the CSI 300 rose 1.9%, and the Hong Kong market where the Hang Seng posted a surprising 5% increase. [...]

The year 2024 began in continuity from the last months of 2023 amid confirmations in monetary policy stance and further complications in geopolitical tensions. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged and adopted a slightly more restrictive tone, ruling out a cut in March but at the same time eliminating the possibility of future hikes. The market's forecast for 2024 remains leaning toward just under 5 cuts (about -140 basis points), in contrast to the 3 expected by the Fed. In the Eurozone, the probability of a first cut in April reached nearly 100 percent, with the market again forecasting [...]

The November rally was extended in December, taking the major stock indices to their highest levels since early 2022. The recovery in financial markets is mainly attributable to central bank communications and macro data. Central bankers seem to be satisfied with the level of normalisation of economic activity and the very fast return of inflation, especially in Europe, and are placing more emphasis on financial conditions. In recent weeks, macroeconomic data have started to signal a slowdown in economic demand on the consumption and manufacturing, includind in the United States. Markets, as usual, have anticipated the cycle of interest [...]

A significant increase in investments in both the stock and bond markets marked the month of November, highlighting changes in the outlook for interest rates and growth. A turning point in the month was the release of US inflation data, which turned out to be lower than analysts had expected. Eurozone inflation also decelerated more than expected to 2.4% year-on-year. The main contribution to this decrease came from the energy sector, benefiting from the current favourable comparison with the higher levels recorded last winter. The moderating inflation trend is expected to persist in the months ahead, supported in part [...]

October usually has a bad reputation and is always approached with some apprehension by investors. In this case, too, it was no less. The major stock markets closed lower, maintaining a certain climate of uncertainty and volatility. The reasons for the worsening market tone were: The outbreak of a new conflict between the Israeli and Palestinian people, which once again highlighted the fragility of the situation in the Middle East. The worsening global economic situation, especially in Europe and China. The high level of bond yields, with the US Treasury reaching a peak of 5%. As said initially the [...]

The third quarter of 2023 closes in an environment still marked by high geopolitical tensions, with the "usual" conflict in Ukraine and aggressive cartel policies implemented by some oil producers, Saudi Arabia above all, which are limiting supply by cutting production. The main economic consequences of these dynamics are significant increases in energy prices, which fuel inflation expectations, leading to restrictive monetary policies and anticipations of interest rate hikes. At the level of financial markets, the correction that began in August continued during the month of September, with an acceleration of the decline after the Fed meeting on 20 [...]