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Macro Outlook: Trade Escalation and Market Impact In May, the Trump administration adopted a notably aggressive stance on tariffs, alternating between new impositions and temporary suspensions. This approach has heightened volatility in financial markets and raised concerns about the direction of U.S. trade policy. The stated objectives include increasing fiscal revenues, protecting manufacturing jobs, promoting economic self-sufficiency, and reducing trade deficits. However, recent market reactions have highlighted the challenge of pursuing all these goals simultaneously. Investors are increasingly concerned that tariffs may exacerbate certain vulnerabilities and inflict short-term economic damage. While signs of openness to dialogue have emerged, the [...]

April 2025 proved to be an extremely turbulent month for global financial markets, marked by sharp instability driven by the escalation of the U.S.–China trade war. The announcement by President Donald Trump on April 2 of a new round of tariffs—referred to as “Liberation Day”—triggered a wave of panic selling across markets, with sharp moves in equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities. Equities: A Volatile Month Between Sell-Offs and Technical Rebounds Following a dramatic start, with the S&P 500 plunging 10.5% in just two days and the Nasdaq 100 entering bear market territory, equities staged a partial recovery in the [...]

The month of March brought with it a mix of uncertainty, volatility and mixed signals from major financial markets. The common thread? Pressure, geopolitics, inflation, divergent economic policies, and investor reactions contributed to a challenging environment where caution and selectivity became watchwords. Global scenario: instability and divergence In the United States, the new wave of tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration has triggered a correction in stock markets and fueled fears about inflation, now at 5%. The labor market shows signs of slowing, while the administration has initiated structural reform with the creation of the D.O.G.E., a task force [...]

The month of February 2025 ended with mixed signals in global markets, amidst economic uncertainty in the United States, Europe’s resilience, and the evolution of monetary policies by major central banks. The balance between inflation, economic growth, and geopolitical tensions defined the investment landscape. Macroeconomic scenario and political developments The Trump administration continued its protectionist economic agenda, intensifying tensions with China and the European Union. New tariffs imposed on Asian technology products fueled market volatility, negatively impacting semiconductor sector stocks. Additionally, the strengthening of anti-immigration measures and uncertainties surrounding U.S. fiscal policies affected investor confidence. In Europe, the EU [...]

The first month of 2025 confirmed the importance of politics and global macroeconomic dynamics in influencing financial markets. Donald Trump's inauguration at the White House, the return of the tariff war, and uncertainties regarding monetary policies contributed to a start of the year characterized by strong market fluctuations. Trump's return and market reactions The election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States immediately triggered reactions in global markets. The administration's statements regarding the introduction of new tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico raised concerns about inflation and potential repercussions on economic growth. The "Make America [...]

The year 2024 comes to a close as one marked by complex challenges and diverse dynamics, testing the resilience of global financial markets and the adaptability of economic operators. In an environment of growing uncertainty, investors have had to constantly recalibrate their strategies to navigate often conflicting economic, political, and social forces. Central banks have played a crucial role, while geopolitical factors—such as the ongoing war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency—have added further uncertainty, increasing the risk of renewed protectionist policies. However, certain assets and sectors have outperformed: U.S. [...]