News

In August 2024, global financial markets experienced high volatility, influenced by fears of a possible recession in the United States, an unexpected rise in interest rates in Japan, and mixed signals from major central banks. Although the end of the month saw a recovery, stocks performed erratically, with a sharp drop early on when investors feared an economic slowdown. However, more favorable economic data and statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in which he indicated the possibility of a future interest rate cut, encouraged a return of investors to the market. The S&P 500 index posted a significant [...]

In the second quarter of 2024, equity markets in developed countries showed more muted returns than in the first quarter, although many indices reached new all-time highs. The slowdown observed in April was not unexpected, considering the robust performance of the previous six months, during which the MSCI World Equity index rose more than 20%. The subsequent rebound suggests that there is still underlying support for equities, although we note a concentration of the rally on artificial intelligence-related stocks. Without these, the overall performance would have been less positive. Markets have been influenced by better economic data supporting corporate [...]

In May, financial markets performed positively, resuming the upward trajectory observed at the beginning of the year and reaching new all-time highs after the April pause. This recovery can be attributed to better-than-expected first quarter financial results, signs of easing inflation, a more stable geopolitical environment and solid economic growth. These factors have fueled optimism about the possibility of a soft landing for the global economy. As a result, equities rose and investors raised expectations of an imminent rate cut by major central banks. The month began with a positive outlook as investors are confident that the European Central [...]

After a strong start to the year, global equity markets experienced some profit-taking in April. The MSCI World index was down 3.7% for the month, reducing year-to-date gains to +4.5%. In the U.S., the S&P 500 index turned negative by 4% as well as Nasdaq technology index -4.50%. Negative performance also for European stock exchanges with Euro Stoxx closing the month at -2.40%. Same trend for the Swiss stock exchange with SMI at -2.90%. Exceptions were the Chinese market, where the CSI 300 rose 1.9%, and the Hong Kong market where the Hang Seng posted a surprising 5% increase. [...]

The year 2024 began in continuity from the last months of 2023 amid confirmations in monetary policy stance and further complications in geopolitical tensions. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged and adopted a slightly more restrictive tone, ruling out a cut in March but at the same time eliminating the possibility of future hikes. The market's forecast for 2024 remains leaning toward just under 5 cuts (about -140 basis points), in contrast to the 3 expected by the Fed. In the Eurozone, the probability of a first cut in April reached nearly 100 percent, with the market again forecasting [...]

The November rally was extended in December, taking the major stock indices to their highest levels since early 2022. The recovery in financial markets is mainly attributable to central bank communications and macro data. Central bankers seem to be satisfied with the level of normalisation of economic activity and the very fast return of inflation, especially in Europe, and are placing more emphasis on financial conditions. In recent weeks, macroeconomic data have started to signal a slowdown in economic demand on the consumption and manufacturing, includind in the United States. Markets, as usual, have anticipated the cycle of interest [...]