General scenario

September confirmed the constructive tone of global financial markets, in a context dominated by optimism for more accommodative monetary policies and good corporate results.

US stock indices reached new all-time highs, supported by the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut, while European and Asian markets closed with positive but more moderate performances.

On the commodities front, gold was the real star, recording its best monthly performance in fourteen years and reaffirming its role as a safe haven asset in a still fragile geopolitical environment.

United States

In the United States, the Fed’s decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was a clear sign of a turning point. The central bank acknowledged a gradual slowdown in inflation and a more balanced labour market, opening the door to a second intervention before the end of the year.

The S&P 500 closed September up around +3.5%, reaching new highs, while the Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a rise of over +5%, driven by the technology sector and renewed enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. The Dow Jones also posted positive gains, albeit more modest (+1.7%).

On the bond front, the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.12% from 4.23% at the end of August, while the PCE Core inflation index remained stable at 2.9%. The inflationary pressures feared after the introduction of new tariffs remain contained for now. However, with stock markets heavily overbought and valuations high, caution remains advisable: the long-term trend remains positive, but the risk/return ratio has gradually declined.

Europe

European markets had a favorable month overall, with more moderate fluctuations than in the United States.

The Stoxx 600 closed up around +1.2%, supported by defensive sectors and industrial stocks, while the German DAX remained virtually unchanged and the Italian index gained around 1%.

On the bond front, yields fell marginally: the 10-year Bund fell to 2.70% (from 2.72% at the end of August) and the BTP to 3.55% (from 3.61%).

Inflation in the eurozone rose slightly to 2.2%, a figure that could limit further rate cuts by the ECB. Christine Lagarde reiterated that monetary policy remains ‘data-dependent’, but expectations of new expansionary measures in the short term have been scaled back.

Overall, Europe continues to benefit from stable rates and resilient corporate earnings, but economic growth remains weak and fragmented.

Asia

The Asian picture remained mixed but positive overall.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 reached new all-time highs, driven by the weak yen and the strength of the technology sector.

In China, markets consolidated their summer gains thanks to inflows of foreign capital and expectations of new fiscal and monetary stimulus, while structural weaknesses remain in the manufacturing sector: the PMI remains in contraction territory in both China and South Korea, signalling weaknesses related to exports.

Overall, sentiment in Asia remains positive but sensitive to developments in Beijing’s economic policies.

Bond markets

After months of volatility, September saw a broad recovery in bond markets.

The Fed’s rate cut contributed to a general decline in yields, which was more pronounced in the United States than in Europe.

Treasuries benefited from a better balance between inflation and growth, but analysts believe that the potential for further declines in yields is now limited. In Europe, too, the compression of yields was limited: core and peripheral bonds moved within a narrow range, reflecting the ECB’s caution and the absence of any major macroeconomic surprises.

Commodities and currencies

September saw a sharp rise in gold prices, which climbed by around +11%, their best monthly performance since 2011. The price reached new historic highs, exceeding USD 3,800 per ounce, driven by falling interest rates, geopolitical tensions and concerns about the US budget.

Currencies showed limited movement: the dollar weakened slightly after the rate cut, while the yen and Swiss franc gained ground as safe-haven assets.

Among other commodities, oil remained stable, while digital assets experienced a month of consolidation.

Outlook and strategic considerations

September represented a balance between euphoria and caution. Stock indices continue to hit record highs, but elevated valuations and geopolitical uncertainty call for a more selective approach.

Interest rate dynamics suggest that central banks will move gradually, seeking to support growth without reigniting inflationary pressures.

In this scenario, we believe it is appropriate to maintain balanced and flexible portfolios, favoring diversification across asset classes and geographical areas, and paying greater attention to defensive sectors and quality flows.

As is often the case in times of peak optimism, markets are testing their limits. The skill of the investor lies in recognising these limits and managing them with discipline, rather than trying to guess when they will be exceeded.

October therefore begins with an interesting challenge: to continue participating in the upturn, but with a strategy based on prudence, long-term vision and conscious risk management.