The month of February 2025 ended with mixed signals in global markets, amidst economic uncertainty in the United States, Europe’s resilience, and the evolution of monetary policies by major central banks. The balance between inflation, economic growth, and geopolitical tensions defined the investment landscape.
Macroeconomic scenario and political developments
The Trump administration continued its protectionist economic agenda, intensifying tensions with China and the European Union. New tariffs imposed on Asian technology products fueled market volatility, negatively impacting semiconductor sector stocks. Additionally, the strengthening of anti-immigration measures and uncertainties surrounding U.S. fiscal policies affected investor confidence.
In Europe, the EU InvestAI plan worth EUR 200 billion supported positive sentiment in the markets, with growing interest in the technology and innovation sectors. The rapprochement between the UK and the EU also contributed to the stability of the currency market, with the pound showing relative strength against the dollar.
Stock Markets: Europe growing, USA under pressure
European stock markets maintained a positive trend, with the Eurostoxx 50 up by 3.30% for the month, driven by the technology and renewable energy sectors. The FTSE MIB rose by 5.70%, thanks to the strong performance of the banking and industrial sectors.
In contrast, Wall Street closed the month in mixed territory, with the S&P 500 down by 1.40% and the Nasdaq falling by 4%. The so-called “Magnificent 7” of tech continued to experience profit-taking, while energy and infrastructure stocks showed greater resilience.
After a 2024 characterized by relative weakness compared to other international markets, the Swiss stock exchange saw growing interest from investors in the first months of this year. The Swiss Market Index (SMI), mainly supported by giants such as Nestlé, Roche, and Novartis, recorded an increase of +3.20%.
In Asia, the Hang Seng market saw a significant rise of +13%, primarily driven by the technology sector. This rally reflects increased foreign investor interest in China following the launch of DeepSeek, an AI model that, despite having lower computational power than its U.S. counterparts, generated great attention towards Chinese tech companies.
Bonds and monetary policies
On the bond front, volatility dominated the month. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury dropped to 4.23%, while the German Bund closed at 2.38%, signaling moderate confidence in a future rate cut. The ECB maintained a cautious stance, indicating possible rate cuts in upcoming meetings, while the Fed postponed definitive decisions, awaiting new inflation data.
Commodities and currencies
Brent oil fluctuated around USD 75 per barrel, while gold reached a monthly high of USD 2,950 per ounce, supported by demand for safe-haven assets. The dollar remained stable against the euro, with the EUR/USD exchange rate stable in the 1.035 – 1.05 range.
Outlook and investment strategies
For the coming months, investors will need to closely monitor the evolution of global economic policies and central bank decisions. Uncertainty remains high, but diversification and careful risk management can offer interesting investment opportunities in 2025.